# Stochastic Models of Behavioral/Bounded Rationality ## expand\_more Adaptive Signal Processing, Hierarchy, and Budgetary Control in Federal Regulation, American Political Science Review, 90 (2) (June 1996): 283-302. - Winner of The Herbert Kaufman Award for Best Paper presented in the Public Administration Section, American Political Science Association annual meetings, August 1992, Chicago. - Winner of the Best Paper Award, Executive Politics Section, American Political Science Association annual meetings, August 1992, Chicago. Stochastic Prediction and Estimation of Nonlinear Political Durations: An Application to the Lifetime of Bureaus, in Political Complexity: Nonlinear Models of Politics, ed. Diana Richards, (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2000). Why Do Bureaucrats Delay? Lessons from a Stochastic Optimal Stopping Model of Product Approval, George Krause and Kenneth Meier, eds., Politics, Policy, and Organizations:Frontiers in the Scientific Study of Bureaucracy, (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 2003). Political Learning from Rare Events: Poisson Inference, Fiscal Constraints, and the Lifetime of Bureaus, with David Lewis. Political Analysis 12 (3) (Summer 2004), 211-244. [Protection without Capture: Product Approval by a Politically Responsive, Bayesian Regulator,](https://people.hmdc.harvard.edu/~dcarpent/protwoc-apsr-pub.pdf) American Political Science Review 98 (4) (November 2004), forthcoming. Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Scholars in Health Policy Working Paper #13. Technical Notes for “Protection without Capture.” \[to be posted soon\] [A Simple Theory of Placebo Learning with Self-Remitting Conditions](http://people.hmdc.harvard.edu/~dcarpent/placeboremit.pdf) [Dynamic Stochastic Learning in Regulatory Optimization: Deadlines and Error with Continuous and Discrete Evidence](http://people.hmdc.harvard.edu/~dcarpent/deadline-theory-2007.pdf) (with Justin Grimmer) "Optimal Stopping with Memory Constraints: A Note." "The Non-Neutrality of Organizational Memory: Optimal Stopping by Teams with Poisson Forgetting." "A Stochastic-Evolutionary Model of Attention." ## Journal Articles Download 7 citations download- [BibTeX](/bibcite/export?pager_style=no_pager&number_of_items=30&sort_field=bibcite_year--desc&taxonomy_filters%5Bfield_hwp_c_projectthemes%5D%5B0%5D%5Btarget_id%5D=17566&&additional_filters%5Btype%5D%5B0%5D%5Bvalue%5D%5B0%5D=journal_article&additional_filters%5Btype%5D%5B0%5D%5Boperator%5D=IN&format=bibtex) - [EndNote X3 XML](/bibcite/export?pager_style=no_pager&number_of_items=30&sort_field=bibcite_year--desc&taxonomy_filters%5Bfield_hwp_c_projectthemes%5D%5B0%5D%5Btarget_id%5D=17566&&additional_filters%5Btype%5D%5B0%5D%5Bvalue%5D%5B0%5D=journal_article&additional_filters%5Btype%5D%5B0%5D%5Boperator%5D=IN&format=endnote8) - [EndNote 7 XML](/bibcite/export?pager_style=no_pager&number_of_items=30&sort_field=bibcite_year--desc&taxonomy_filters%5Bfield_hwp_c_projectthemes%5D%5B0%5D%5Btarget_id%5D=17566&&additional_filters%5Btype%5D%5B0%5D%5Bvalue%5D%5B0%5D=journal_article&additional_filters%5Btype%5D%5B0%5D%5Boperator%5D=IN&format=endnote7) - [Endnote tagged](/bibcite/export?pager_style=no_pager&number_of_items=30&sort_field=bibcite_year--desc&taxonomy_filters%5Bfield_hwp_c_projectthemes%5D%5B0%5D%5Btarget_id%5D=17566&&additional_filters%5Btype%5D%5B0%5D%5Bvalue%5D%5B0%5D=journal_article&additional_filters%5Btype%5D%5B0%5D%5Boperator%5D=IN&format=tagged) - [Marc](/bibcite/export?pager_style=no_pager&number_of_items=30&sort_field=bibcite_year--desc&taxonomy_filters%5Bfield_hwp_c_projectthemes%5D%5B0%5D%5Btarget_id%5D=17566&&additional_filters%5Btype%5D%5B0%5D%5Bvalue%5D%5B0%5D=journal_article&additional_filters%5Btype%5D%5B0%5D%5Boperator%5D=IN&format=marc) - [PubMedId](/bibcite/export?pager_style=no_pager&number_of_items=30&sort_field=bibcite_year--desc&taxonomy_filters%5Bfield_hwp_c_projectthemes%5D%5B0%5D%5Btarget_id%5D=17566&&additional_filters%5Btype%5D%5B0%5D%5Bvalue%5D%5B0%5D=journal_article&additional_filters%5Btype%5D%5B0%5D%5Boperator%5D=IN&format=pubmed_id) - [RIS](/bibcite/export?pager_style=no_pager&number_of_items=30&sort_field=bibcite_year--desc&taxonomy_filters%5Bfield_hwp_c_projectthemes%5D%5B0%5D%5Btarget_id%5D=17566&&additional_filters%5Btype%5D%5B0%5D%5Bvalue%5D%5B0%5D=journal_article&additional_filters%5Btype%5D%5B0%5D%5Boperator%5D=IN&format=ris) ### 2007 Carpenter D, Grimmer J. [Dynamic Stochastic Learning in Regulatory Optimization: Deadlines and Error with Continuous and Discrete Evidence](/publications/dynamic-stochastic-learning-regulatory-optimization-deadlines-and-error). 2007. Carpenter D, Grimmer J. [Dynamic Stochastic Learning in Regulatory Optimization: Deadlines and Error with Continuous and Discrete Evidence](/publications/dynamic-stochastic-learning-regulatory-optimization-deadlines-and-error). 2007. - [ picture\_as\_pdfdeadline-theory-2007.pdf](/sites/g/files/omnuum8536/files/dcarpenter/files/deadline-theory-2007.pdf) - [ picture\_as\_pdfdeadline-theory-2007.pdf](/sites/g/files/omnuum8536/files/dcarpenter/files/deadline-theory-2007.pdf) ### 2005 Carpenter D. [A Simple Theory of Placebo Learning with Self-Remitting Conditions](/publications/simple-theory-placebo-learning-self-remitting-conditions). 2005. Carpenter D. [A Simple Theory of Placebo Learning with Self-Remitting Conditions](/publications/simple-theory-placebo-learning-self-remitting-conditions). 2005. - [ picture\_as\_pdfplaceboremit.pdf](/sites/g/files/omnuum8536/files/dcarpenter/files/placeboremit.pdf) - [ picture\_as\_pdfplaceboremit.pdf](/sites/g/files/omnuum8536/files/dcarpenter/files/placeboremit.pdf) ### 2004 Carpenter D. [“Protection without Capture: Dynamic Product Approval by a Politically Responsive Learning Regulator”](http://www.jstor.org/pss/4145328). American Political Science Review . 2004;98(4):613–631. Carpenter D. [“Protection without Capture: Dynamic Product Approval by a Politically Responsive Learning Regulator”](http://www.jstor.org/pss/4145328). American Political Science Review . 2004;98(4):613–631. - [ picture\_as\_pdfprotwoc-apsr-pub.pdf](/sites/g/files/omnuum8536/files/dcarpenter/files/protwoc-apsr-pub.pdf) - [ picture\_as\_pdfprotwoc-apsr-pub.pdf](/sites/g/files/omnuum8536/files/dcarpenter/files/protwoc-apsr-pub.pdf) Carpenter D, Lewis D. [“Political Learning from Rare Events: Poisson Inference Fiscal Constraints and the Lifetime of Bureaus”](http://pan.oxfordjournals.org/content/12/3/201.abstract). Political Analysis. 2004;12(3):201–232. Carpenter D, Lewis D. [“Political Learning from Rare Events: Poisson Inference Fiscal Constraints and the Lifetime of Bureaus”](http://pan.oxfordjournals.org/content/12/3/201.abstract). Political Analysis. 2004;12(3):201–232. ### 2003 Carpenter D, Meier K, Krause G. [Why Do Bureaucrats Delay? Lessons from a Stochastic Optimal Stopping Model of Product Approval” forthcoming](https://www.press.umich.edu/pdf/0472113178-ch2.pdf). 2003. Carpenter D, Meier K, Krause G. [Why Do Bureaucrats Delay? Lessons from a Stochastic Optimal Stopping Model of Product Approval” forthcoming](https://www.press.umich.edu/pdf/0472113178-ch2.pdf). 2003. ### 2000 Carpenter D. [“Stochastic Prediction and Estimation of Nonlinear Political Durations: An Application to the Lifetime of Bureaus”](/publications/%E2%80%9Cstochastic-prediction-and-estimation-nonlinear-political-durations-applicat). Political Complexity. 2000. Carpenter D. [“Stochastic Prediction and Estimation of Nonlinear Political Durations: An Application to the Lifetime of Bureaus”](/publications/%E2%80%9Cstochastic-prediction-and-estimation-nonlinear-political-durations-applicat). Political Complexity. 2000. ### 1996 Carpenter D. [“Adaptive Signal Processing Hierarchy and Budgetary Control in Federal Regulation”](http://www.jstor.org/pss/2082885). American Political Science Review . 1996;90(2):283–302. Carpenter D. [“Adaptive Signal Processing Hierarchy and Budgetary Control in Federal Regulation”](http://www.jstor.org/pss/2082885). American Political Science Review . 1996;90(2):283–302. See also:- [ Applied Stochastic Processes, Stochastic Models, and Bounded Rationality ](/project-themes/applied-stochastic-processes-stochastic-models-and-bounded-rationality)